NYC Boss

NYC Boss

Based on History, Economic Models and Historical Trends President Trump Will Win 2020 Presidential Election

Based on History, Economic Models and Historical Trends President Trump Will Win 2020 Presidential Election

History shows that President Trump is in a great spot heading into the 2020 election.

For starters the major story heading into the 2020 election was the China coronavirus.  Since 1820 the incumbent is the winner in all 11 contests where the incumbent was running after facing a pandemic:

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Incumbents have won elections when the economy was down a majority of the time.  But no incumbent who has received at least 75% of the primary vote has lost re-election. Donald Trump received 94% of the primary vote, which is the 4th highest all-time. Higher than Eisenhower, Nixon, Clinton, and Obama.

Incumbents are 4-0 when facing a pandemic and social unrest:

Every candidate since 1988 that led in enthusiasm, won the election.  Trump is crushing Biden in enthusiasm.

The polls have often been wrong and may be getting worse:

A recent study developed in 2012 shows President Trump has an 87% chance of winning the 2020 election right now based on the current standings of US stock markets.

No one who served 15 years in the Senate ever won the election, Biden served 36 years:

Currently the only thing Biden is winning is the polls but by every historical measure (and many more) Donald Trump will win the election:

(Hat tip Red State for pointing this out.)

Published at Thu, 15 Oct 2020 02:59:07 +0000