NYC Boss

NYC Boss

ECONOMIST DATABASE…

ECONOMIST DATABASE…

Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college.

Chance of winning the electoral college

around 9 in 10

or 91%

around 1 in 10

or 8%

Chance of winning the most votes

better than 19 in 20

or 99%

less than 1 in 20

or 1%

Predicted range of electoral college votes
(270 to win)

The probability of an electoral-college tie is <1%

Chance of winning
the electoral college
Chance of winning
the most votes
Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win)

around 9 in 10

or 91%

better than 19 in 20

or 99%

229415

around 1 in 10

or 8%

less than 1 in 20

or 1%

123309

The probability of an electoral-college tie is <1%





Pennsylvania

1 in 6.8m

27%

Florida

1 in 17m

14%

Michigan

1 in 8.4m

13%

Wisconsin

1 in 6.9m

11%

North Carolina

1 in 22m

6%

Minnesota

1 in 13m

5%

Arizona

1 in 16m

5%

Texas

1 in 48m

3%

Nevada

1 in 11m

3%

Georgia

1 in 31m

3%

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Sources: US Census Bureau; MIT Election and Data Science Lab; 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study; US Bureau of Economic Analysis; American National Election Studies; 270towin.com; Gallup; FiveThirtyEight; YouGov

Forecast by The Economist with Andrew Gelman and Merlin Heidemanns, Columbia University

Published at Mon, 26 Oct 2020 00:04:36 +0000